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CCM Portfolio Management Weekly Update - March 17th 2023

Updated: Apr 11, 2023

We'd like to share weekly updates on the market summarizing what has made the biggest impact over the past week, what we're watching for the upcoming week, and other items that we may find interesting/of importance.

The key influences that impacted the market in the last week: the failure of Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) → to keep it short, SVB raised concerns of insolvency, this led to an abundance of withdrawal requests from clients, and SVB had to sell generating large losses on holdings that had decreased in value due to the current market conditions

  • waves of fear were brought onto other banks with the concern of being able to meet liquidity needs, which had a negative impact on the whole market for a few days

  • oil prices dropped on the news of the economy hurting more than expected, giving rise to price decreases in the energy sector along with banks

The things we are watching closely right now for you and all of our clients: will there be a recession in 2023? This seems to be a bit nearer on the horizon after the events the past week

  • we’ve been noticing that bond and equity behavior has been more in line than we’ve seen the past year (in line meaning an inverse relationship, equities dropping; bonds rising) → in a recession, there is a “flight to quality” effect where investors shift from risky assets to traditionally safer investments like investment grade bonds

  • as always, what is going on with inflation, maybe we will see some decreases in spending going forward as we’ve now witnessed how interest rates can assuredly disrupt the economy, notably small businesses → lenders are definitely going to be more stringent with loans now, perhaps we needed this shock in the system to help bring down inflation

  • next week there is another Fed meeting where we will get some color on how interest rate hikes (or cuts?) are going to look going forward

I thought the below article was interesting, the new-age world we live in is pretty wild in the sense of how quickly information is disseminated and how requests for virtually anything can be made electronically and (somewhat) instantaneously. The herding behavior we’re seeing isn’t anything new, people have always been quick to jump to conclusions based on a “rumor” and without doing proprietary research, but now messages can get to a mass population within seconds and seemingly cause complete panic (I can’t imagine if all of our clients wanted their funds at once!)

As always, please feel free to reach out to any member of the Creed Capital Management Team if you have any questions!

- Your Creed Capital Management Team

I have prepared this report to the best of my judgment and professional experience to give you my thoughts on various financial aspects and considerations. The opinions expressed represent solely my informed opinions and may not reflect the views of NBF.

National Bank Financial - Wealth Management (NBFWM) is a division of National Bank Financial Inc. (NBF), as well as a trademark owned by National Bank of Canada (NBC) that is used under license by NBF. NBF is a member of the Investment Industry Regulatory Organization of Canada (IIROC) and the Canadian Investor Protection Fund (CIPF), and is a wholly-owned subsidiary of NBC, a public company listed on the Toronto Stock Exchange (TSX: NA).

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